Global
Warming - A Junk Science Debacle
The popular science behind the current media attention driving the
debate on Global Warming is junk and it doesn't require a scientific
degree or a vast encyclopedia of statistics to realize this
point. One must only take a quick look at recent geological and
climatic history to come to the conclusion that the current warming
trend is not a trend caused by recent human activity but a continuation
of the warming trend which initiated the end of the last Ice Age many
thousands of years ago. The warming and cooling trends of the Earth are probably affected by more factors than merely the increasing levels of Greenhouse gases and the current focus on carbon dioxide illustrates the primitive nature of the science used in arguing man's activities is mainly responsible for the planet's current warming trend.
Living in the 50s latitudes in North America or Europe a person can
easily see the recent geological and geographical scars of the last Ice
Age in many locations. On mountain sides the top soil is very
thin and the overburden (underlaying soils) is glacial till, basically
ground-up rock, silt, some sands and sometimes gravel. The
hillsides are shaped by the glacial flows which in geological time
existed until very recently. Mountains display shapes and forms which
were only recently caused by ice flow. Hills which are merely
piles of glacial debris are plentiful with characteristic shapes of
glacial action.
Take a hike around the terminus of a glacial and the area below and
note the forms of debris and erosion. Walk a few miles away and
look at some of the larger geographical features and it is easy to see
how these features are glacial driven. Even hundreds of miles
away from any current glacial or ice field it is easy to see
geographical features which were formed by glacial action.
Pickup any textbook which describes geology or geography in the high
latitudes of North America and one quickly learns most geographical
features of North America down to 45 degrees latitude were formed by
ice. Read the book and one learns most of this region was covered
by ice as little as 30,000 to 45,000 years ago with some areas still
supporting glaciers as little as 10,000 years ago. For all that
ice to melt one must conclude the climate has been warming. Why
is it surprising that the climate is still warming?
The level of the Great Lakes is falling! Lake Winnipeg is falling
and silting up! The Great Lakes were only recently nearly twice
the current size. The level of the lakes have been falling for
thousands of years and one should expect them to continue to lose water
for a few more thousand years. Lake Winnipeg, only recently in
geological time, covered southern Manitoba and parts of Saskatchewan
and Ontario. Lake Winnipeg is silting up, that is part of the
natural life cycle of lakes and what one would expect to happen after
the glaciers which fed them disappeared and the climate becomes warmer
and drier.
Man is ignoring the fact that the last Ice Age ended as little as only
10,000 years ago in some areas of North America. I live in a
river valley miles in width, the river valley of a major river and
drainage system, the Fraser River. As little as 10,000 years ago
the valley floor was covered in ice 1 to 2 kilometres in depth.
The local mountains all had glaciers which flowed into this valley
making it a river of ice. The local geology and geography has
been shaped by the action, or the interactions, of these rivers of ice.
A common misconception of Ice Ages is that the climate must have been
very cold. Snow does not fall in climates which are described as
very cold. In the high arctic and the Antarctic it snows very
little except on the edges near the open ocean. The snow which
does fall in the high arctic regions is the result of moisture in the
air freezing out as ice crystals. The jet streams feed the arctic
regions with relatively high humidity air which sinks over arctic
regions as it cools. This cooling freezes the humidity and it
falls to the ground as ice crystals much like snow.
During the last Ice Age North America was not that cold as a cold
environment would not have supported the snow fall which must have
occurred. During the last Ice Age North America supported a large
number of animal species which were large, mega fauna. Mammoths,
giant sloths, giant bears, large saber-toothed cats, bison which were
25% larger than the current species and even a giant 400 pound
beaver. For animals to get this big there must have been an
abundance of food. For herbivores there must have been an
abundance of plants. For carnivores there must have been an
abundance of prey. Mega fauna and mega flora existing within an
Ice Age? North America must not have been the icy wasteland once
would associate with an Ice Age.
If you look at the fauna that existed you can get a good idea of the
flora which must have existed and some idea of the climatic conditions
in northern latitudes during the last Ice Age. Mammoths ate
grass. Those big tusks were probably used in the winter to clear
snow from areas in which they grazed. There must have been vast
amounts of grass available to support to mammoths year round.
Grass will thrive in a cool wet environment with mild winters.
Reverse engineering the climate, it must have been cool and wet in the
summer supporting significant grasslands and in some areas
forest. Winters would have been mild with significant
precipitation. The snow would have melted in the lower elevations
but at higher elevations the snow would have built-up over the seasons
and formed glaciers. The glaciers would have invaded the lower
elevations and flowed toward the lower elevations and the sea much like
our rivers of today. The glacier flows may have turned into a
traditional river but in areas with mountains near the sea the ice
flows would have flowed directly into the sea.
The climate which existed during the last Ice Age appears to be a bit
of a contradiction. While it must have been cold enough for all
the snow to accumulate and form glacial ice it was warm enough to allow
large snowfalls. Look at recent weather history and the years
when there was actually an increase in snow accumulation on local
glaciers. The weather phenomena which produced the massive
snowfall was called the "Pineapple Express" locally. Warm moist
air from the Hawaii region was diverted to this region and when it made
landfall in this region it produced near record precipitation.
Rain and snow at lower elevations and snow, lots of snow, at higher
elevations. Many areas below the current snow-line retained snow
throughout the summer.
If the warm moist airflow persisted year-round the summer would be mild
and wet and winters mild with significant snowfall. I suspect you
would only need this weather phenomena to continue for a few hundred
years to build significant glaciers. Once it got to a certain
point the glaciers would modify the climate in their immediate vicinity
significantly lowering the summer snow melt-off. A mild and wet
weather pattern would have supported both mega fauna flora plus the
accumulation of snow forming glaciers.
If you visit the area below a large glacier or ice field you will note
a persistent cold wind flowing downward away from the glacier or ice
field, even on sunny days. This is caused by air in contact with
the ice cooling and as it cools it becomes heavier and sinks.
Below one of the tongues of the Columbia Icefield this cold wind has
prevented any significant tree growth and keeps the climate below the
icefield very cool allowing only stunted tree growth. To throw a
further wrench into current thinking of the last Ice Age ending and
global warming be aware that this area currently below the Columbia
Icefield, the valley with the Icefields Parkway, supported a forest
with large trees approximately 6,000 years ago. Has the climate
cooled that much? The Columbia Icefield is currently retreating
from that valley and the forest may soon be able to return. Yet,
many will use this as evidence of the current trend of global warming
while this area is warming to the same point it held 6,000 years ago.
When the Vikings settled in southern Greenland a thousand years ago it
was warm enough to support a lifestyle and system of farming/animal
husbandry similar to their experience in what is now Scandinavia.
The climate in Greenland changed and the Vikings didn’t adapt and
ceased to exist in Greenland. The climate change was noted in
Europe and is referred to as the mini Ice Age. The Earth’s
climate cycles between cooler and warmer on top of a warming
trend. The same warming trend which is ending the last Ice Age, a
trend which man didn’t start. Man may in some way be affecting
this warming trend at this time but in all likelihood man’s influence
is fantastically over rated.
Sea levels have risen dramatically in the last approximately 45,000
years and this was not caused by man's activities. It is
estimated in the last 45,000 years sea level has risen by 150
metres. The currently flooded area between England and France was
dry land supporting a large population of mammoths as little as 40,000
years ago. Fishermen continue to collect fossil tusks in their
nets to this day. With a history of rising sea levels one could
logically expect sea levels to continue to rise. Why does the
media hype the dangers of rising sea levels when it has been happening
over the last 45,000 years?
Sea levels will continue to rise and many low-laying coastal areas will
be flooded. This is not due to Global Warming caused by the
actions of humans but the continence of a trend established long before
man’s activities in any way could affect the Earth’s climate. The
problem is that many societies have built-up low-laying coastal areas
which history has shown should not be considered areas suitable for
permanent habitation. Man has always been a type of nomad which
settled areas when it was convenient and moved on, or died out, when
conditions became unfavourable. Whatever level of civilization
and technical sophistication man believes they have accomplished they
are not going to stop the trend of rising sea levels. The
geography of the Earth is constantly changing and man has almost no
power over this change.
The Earth has a magnetic field which protects the surface from cosmic
radiation and harmful forms of the Sun's radiation or light. The
Earth's magnetic field is one of the major factors making this speck of
cosmic dust habitable for life as we know it. This field protects
the Earth's atmosphere from the greater part of the harmful effects of
solar radiation. Without the magnetic field Earth would become a
sterile planet like Mars blasted by various forms of radiation.
Earth's magnetic field has historically changed in strength, the
location of the poles have drifted and it has reversed its polarity in
the past. The strength of the magnetic field is currently
weakening but this is no real cause for concern as it has weakened in
the past and life on Earth managed to survive. This variation of
the Earth's magnetic field probably has more effect on the ozone
component of the atmosphere than any effort on the part of mankind.
The strength of the magnetic field may have a direct correlation on the
Earth’s climate. Look at both Venus and Mars. Both have
very weak planetary magnetic fields at this time. Mars has lost
most of its atmosphere, probably because it lost the protecting
effect of a strong planetary magnetic field. Without the
protective cocoon provided by a planetary magnetic field the atmosphere
was blown away by solar radiation. Venus has a weak planetary
magnetic field and while it has managed to retain a thicker atmosphere
it an extreme example of the Greenhouse Effect. Maybe science
should attempt to determine the effect of planetary magnetic fields and
planetary climate!
Another factor affecting the Earth's magnetic field is the effects of
solar radiation. Solar storms and solar flares affect the Earth's
magnetic field sometimes disrupting communications in high latitude
regions. Some solar storms have been so powerful that
communication satellites have been disabled or damaged. If the
solar storms are powerful enough to affect the magnetic field they are
powerful enough to affect the upper levels of the Earth's atmosphere
and the ozone component. The recent period of enlarged ozone
depletion zones over the poles corresponds directly to a solar cycle of
increased number of storms and storm severity. Do we really know
that the current levels of ozone depletion is being caused by man's
activities or by increased solar activity? Maybe this ozone
depletion is caused by a weakening planetary magnetic field allowing
solar radiation to destroy atmospheric components and not due to man’s
activities.
The media and many scientists appear to focus on the short-term changes
in the Earth's environment and blame human activity for all of these
changes. They ignore history and the tremendous changes in
climate and the environment which have taken place within the last
50,000 years. Countless species of animals have gone
extinct. The climate has changed. Sea levels have risen
approximately 150 metres. Massive lakes have disappeared.
The mountainous areas once covered by ice are now covered by
forests. The environment has changed so significantly to make the
world of today totally different from that of only 50,000 years
ago. Why do so many people want to blame the minor changes now
taking place totally on human activity?
Until science can completely explain the mechanism causing the Earth to
oscillate in and out of Ice Ages they are in no position to make much
comment on the causes of climate change. Climate change exists,
it has been happening pretty much since this speck of cosmic dust
developed an atmosphere. Ocean levels have risen and fallen,
lands have been flooded and exposed, mountains and risen out of the sea
and land masses have sunk into the sea. Finding a lengthy period
when the climate was stable and the oceans neither rose nor fell would
be more remarkable than any change the planet is currently
experiencing.
People appear to believe they are important and all their actions are
therefore important. Being important implies power and this sense
of power has been transferred to some weird collective sense of guilt
where the more affluent you are the more guilt you suffer for the
changing environment. Forget the history of environmental
change. Overlook the fact that current environmental change is a
continuation of the trend of historical environmental change.
Fail to understand the complexity of the forces which make this speck
of cosmic dust a habitable place for life as we know it. Now you
are fully prepared to maximize the feeling of guilt for Global Warming.
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Revised January 1, 2007